The global offshore wind industry is poised for a significant resurgence in 2025, with projected capacity additions reaching 19 gigawatts (GW) and expenditures expected to hit $80 billion. This marks a strong recovery from 2024, when new installations fell to 8 GW. The rebound is largely driven by a surge in lease auctions, with the global offshore wind industry seeing increased commitments, particularly from Mainland China, which accounts for 65% of new capacity. This expansion will surpass the previous peak in 2021, reinforcing the sector’s long-term growth trajectory.
Despite these promising developments, the global offshore wind industry faces persistent challenges, including supply chain constraints and uncertainties surrounding lease agreements. Floating wind technology, which has gained attention for its potential in deeper waters, remains hindered by supply limitations. Capacity for floating wind is projected to stay below 7 GW by 2030 unless governments provide stronger support to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
Lease agreements play a critical role in shaping future capacity. While a record-breaking 55 GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions outside of China in 2024, not all of it was awarded. The U.S. market, in particular, saw uneven participation, with no bids received for a 3-GW floating wind auction in Oregon, while the Gulf of Maine auction successfully awarded 7 GW of the 13 GW offered. Looking ahead to 2025, available lease auction capacity is expected to drop to between 30-40 GW, a significant decrease from 2024 but still in line with historical levels seen in 2021 and 2022.
Policy uncertainty in the United States remains a major hurdle for the global offshore wind industry. A recent executive memorandum issued by President Donald Trump halts new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), citing environmental and safety concerns. This could stall new developments throughout his term, adding further unpredictability to the sector’s growth in the U.S. In 2024, project delays also led to a slowdown in final investment decisions (FID), with only a handful of U.S. projects, such as Empire Wind 1 and Sunrise Wind, securing approvals.
However, there were bright spots in 2024, with key projects like Red Rock Power and ESB’s 1.1-GW Inch Cape in the UK and Equinor’s 810-MW Empire Wind 1 in the U.S. advancing to financial close. In Europe, developers such as Iberdrola, RWE, and Orsted pushed forward with projects in Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.S., further solidifying investor confidence.
Looking to 2025, Europe is set to see a surge in FID activity, with the UK, Poland, and Germany expected to lead the charge with a combined 9.5 GW of approvals. Poland, in particular, is on track for major developments, including Polenergia and Equinor’s Baltyk II and III projects. These commitments highlight continued momentum in offshore wind expansion, reinforcing the industry’s potential despite ongoing challenges.