In 2023, the global offshore wind sector demonstrated resilience by achieving a 7% growth in new capacity despite challenges like inflation and supply chain disruptions. This trend is expected to continue, with new capacity predicted to increase by 9% by the end of the year. Offshore wind growth is forecasted to maintain a steady pace, with global installations projected to exceed 520 gigawatts (GW) by 2040, excluding mainland China.
Europe is set to play a pivotal role in offshore wind growth, particularly in the expansion of floating wind projects. By 2040, Europe is expected to account for over 70% of global floating wind installations, driven by countries like the UK, France, and Portugal. Although some delays in project deployment are anticipated beyond 2030, there will likely be a strong push to accelerate the installation of floating wind capacity, which is projected to approach 90 GW by 2040. Asia, excluding mainland China, is also expected to be a key player, capturing about 20% of global installations by 2040.
However, the sector faces significant challenges, particularly related to supply chain constraints. Both the floating wind and bottom-fixed segments are grappling with these issues, which could hinder the advancement of technology in the short term. Current estimates suggest that floating wind capacity could be less than 7 GW by 2030 if these challenges are not addressed. To ensure continued offshore wind growth, increased government support is crucial. This support will help overcome logistical issues and create a supportive ecosystem that fosters investor confidence and accelerates the energy transition.
In the bottom-fixed market, the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands are expected to emerge as dominant players, leveraging their proximity to the North Sea and extensive maritime areas. These countries are projected to collectively account for 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040, while the US is expected to contribute less than 40 GW. The future of the US market, however, is contingent on its political landscape, with concerns that a potential administration change could impede offshore wind growth.
From 2025 to 2030, significant growth is anticipated in the Americas, led by the US, and in Asia, excluding mainland China. Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam are expected to emerge as major markets in Asia, with the region’s capacity projected to reach nearly 28 GW by 2030. Europe is expected to maintain its leadership position, with 41 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and over 112 GW by 2030, driven by a steady stream of projects awarded through competitive auctions.
Looking further ahead, between 2030 and 2040, the global floating wind sector is expected to mature, with Europe and Asia leading the way. Europe is forecasted to add 20 GW of floating wind capacity between 2030 and 2035, and by 2040, the continent is expected to have installed over 65 GW. Asia, excluding mainland China, is projected to reach 17 GW by 2040, marking significant offshore wind growth in the region.
In conclusion, while challenges persist, the global offshore wind sector is poised for continued growth, with Europe and Asia leading the charge in both bottom-fixed and floating wind installations. The role of government support and strategic investments will be critical in sustaining this momentum and ensuring that offshore wind plays a central role in the global energy transition.