A potentially exceptionally powerful El Nino is threatening to intensify pressure on global food systems already facing rising prices, geopolitical disruption and climate-related extremes. The weather pattern is expected to peak toward the end of the year, potentially bringing severe droughts, floods and storms to vulnerable regions. However, history suggests that the consequences will depend as much on government preparedness, international trade and disaster-response systems as on the severity of the weather itself.
Past events demonstrate how dramatically societies have improved their ability to cope with climate shocks. The devastating 1877-78 event contributed to famines and disasters that killed tens of millions of people. By comparison, the powerful 1997-98 episode caused an estimated 22,000 deaths from droughts and floods. Improvements in agricultural productivity, infrastructure, government capacity, forecasting and emergency response helped produce this enormous reduction in mortality.
International food trade is particularly important during El Nino because its impacts vary considerably between regions. While drought can reduce harvests in one country, increased rainfall may improve agricultural production elsewhere. Allowing food to move between these regions can therefore compensate for shortages and stabilize prices. Attempts to achieve complete national food self-sufficiency or restrict exports during crises can instead make shortages worse.
Bangladesh provides an important historical example. During the 1997-98 event, rice production fell by approximately 20% as flooding disrupted agriculture. Unlike during disastrous food shortages in the 1970s, however, Bangladesh had liberalized its food markets. Private traders were able to import large quantities of rice from India, helping stabilize prices and preventing the agricultural shock from developing into a much larger humanitarian crisis. Research from sub-Saharan Africa has similarly found that access to substantial food imports can help countries manage production shortages.
Similar geographic differences could occur during the current El Nino. Drought may damage agricultural production across Central America and northern Brazil, while increased rainfall could improve maize and soybean harvests in southern Brazil and Argentina. International markets could consequently redistribute supplies from regions experiencing stronger harvests toward those suffering shortages.
Governments nevertheless have an important role beyond keeping markets functioning. Authorities can invest in early-warning systems, emergency planning, wildfire protection and targeted assistance for vulnerable communities. The World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization have identified millions of vulnerable people across 22 countries for preventive measures, while individual governments are strengthening their own emergency responses.
Better forecasting has already demonstrated its value. Although recorded climate-related disasters have increased substantially over recent decades, deaths have declined significantly as warning systems and emergency responses have improved. Timely information can allow communities to evacuate, protect food supplies and prepare infrastructure before extreme weather arrives.
Ultimately, El Nino represents a major stress test rather than an unavoidable global catastrophe. Climate change, geopolitical conflict and disrupted commodity markets could magnify its effects, but international trade, agricultural productivity, early warnings and carefully targeted government intervention provide powerful tools for limiting the damage. The greatest challenge is ensuring these systems continue functioning when they are needed most.
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