New global research shows that the 66 million tonnes of waste entering the environment each year from plastic packaging could be almost completely eliminated by 2040 through reuse and return schemes. The analysis, led by the Pew Charitable Trusts in collaboration with researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Oxford, warns that the world is heading toward a severe environmental and public health crisis if current trends continue. Without intervention, plastic pollution is projected to more than double within 15 years, reaching 280 million tonnes annually—equivalent to a truckload of plastic being dumped into nature every second. The consequences would ripple across ecosystems, economies, and human health worldwide.
Plastic production, driven largely by fossil fuels, is expected to rise by 52% from 450 million tonnes today to 680 million tonnes by 2040, far outpacing the capacity of global waste management systems. The packaging sector—responsible for soft films, bags, bottles, and rigid containers—accounts for the largest share of plastic use and waste. In 2025 alone, packaging made up 33% of all plastic waste globally, generating 66 million tonnes of environmental pollution. Much of this packaging is designed for single use and is not recyclable, locking in a cycle of constant production and disposal.
Despite the scale of the crisis, researchers emphasize that solutions already exist. With coordinated action, packaging-related plastic pollution could be reduced by up to 97% through the widespread deployment of deposit return schemes, refill systems, production reductions, and bans on certain polymers. Reuse and return systems alone could remove two-thirds of packaging pollution by encouraging consumers to bring back containers for refill or reuse. In addition, replacing plastics with materials such as cardboard, glass, and metal offers further reductions. According to Pew’s Winnie Lau, the tools needed to nearly eliminate packaging pollution are already available and achievable within a generation.
The report also highlights the growing health risks associated with plastics. More than 16,000 chemicals are intentionally added to plastic products, along with many unintentional contaminants. Scientific studies link these substances to hormone disruption, reduced fertility, low birth weights, developmental disorders in children, diabetes, and increased cardiovascular and cancer risks. Human exposure occurs through everyday products, food packaging, toys, and proximity to petrochemical facilities. At the same time, plastic pollution harms wildlife through ingestion, entanglement, and habitat degradation, accelerating biodiversity loss.
Climate impacts are equally severe. Greenhouse gas emissions from the global plastic system are projected to rise from 2.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2025 to 4.2 gigatonnes by 2040—a 58% increase. If plastic production were a country, it would rank as the world’s third-largest emitter behind only China and the United States. However, comprehensive reforms across production, waste management, and reuse systems could cut emissions by 38% and reduce health impacts by 54%, while saving governments $19 billion annually in waste collection and disposal costs.
Ultimately, the researchers stress that transformation is still possible. With decisive leadership, strong regulation, and large-scale adoption of circular packaging systems, plastic pollution can be dramatically reduced within a single generation. As Pew’s Tom Dillon notes, hope remains—if global decision-makers choose to prioritize people, public health, and the planet over unchecked plastic expansion.