A new report from the European Environment Agency highlights how climate change will significantly reshape Europe’s energy landscape, particularly in southern countries. The study emphasizes that future energy demand for cooling will rise sharply in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, with these nations projected to account for more than 70 percent of total annual cooling needs in EU residential buildings. This trend is tied directly to rising global temperatures, which will intensify heatwaves and put pressure on electricity systems already strained by climate risks.
The report frames increased cooling as one of Europe’s primary climate-related energy challenges. It notes that between 2010 and 2019, final energy use for cooling in residential buildings tripled across 19 European countries, a sign of how quickly the issue is escalating. Beyond cooling, other vulnerabilities include declining hydroelectric potential from water scarcity, lower efficiency in thermal power stations, and risks to transmission networks from extreme weather events. Southern Europe is particularly exposed, with prolonged droughts threatening hydroelectric output while simultaneous heatwaves drive peak electricity consumption. These overlapping pressures could trigger more frequent power cuts in the region.
While risks are uneven across the continent, the report stresses that climate impacts will affect all parts of Europe, albeit differently. Northern Europe may see both risks and opportunities, but southern countries face compounded threats of heat, drought, and water stress. This makes the management of future energy demand critical to maintaining security of supply. The European Environment Agency warns that floods, storms, and forest fires could also damage energy infrastructure, disrupting both production and transmission.
At the same time, the report points to progress on the transition toward renewable energy. In 2023, renewable sources made up 24.5 percent of the EU’s final energy consumption, the highest share to date. This was supported by EU-wide initiatives such as the REPowerEU plan and the Fit for 55 legislative package. However, the figure remains far below the 2030 target of 42.5 percent, which will require a fundamental transformation of the European energy system.
Portugal emerges as a standout example of successful energy transition. The country has nearly doubled the share of renewables in its final consumption since 2004, reaching 35 percent by 2023. Renewables now account for more than 73 percent of its electricity mix, driven by a combination of hydropower, wind, and rapidly expanding solar capacity. Large-scale photovoltaic installations and rooftop solar adoption have accelerated in recent years, while modernization of hydroelectric plants with reverse pumping dams has added valuable storage capacity.
Portugal’s closure of coal-fired power plants in 2021 marked a pivotal milestone, underscoring its commitment to phasing out fossil fuels. These measures have positioned the country as a pioneer within Europe’s clean energy transition, demonstrating how investments in renewables can reduce emissions and bolster security of supply. However, even as Portugal leads in decarbonisation, it remains vulnerable to rising energy demand for cooling, underscoring the dual challenge of adapting to climate risks while advancing the green transition.