A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the urgent need for a massive expansion of transmission lines to meet climate goals and ensure energy security.
According to the report, approximately 49.7 million miles of transmission lines must be added or replaced by 2040 to accommodate the growing demand for clean energy. This is roughly equivalent to the total mileage of electric grids currently existing worldwide.
To achieve this remarkable scale-up in transmission line construction, the IEA estimates that annual investments of more than $600 billion in electric grids will be needed by 2030. This is double the current global investment levels in transmission lines. The report emphasizes that investment in grid infrastructure has been insufficient, which poses a significant bottleneck to the adoption of clean energy technologies.
The IEA points out that there are currently 1,500 gigawatts of renewable clean energy projects in advanced stages of development that are waiting to be connected to the electric grid globally. This is five times the total wind and solar power added globally in 2022.
The report underscores that as more sectors transition to electric power, the demand for electricity will continue to rise. Additionally, electric grids need to be expanded to accommodate the growing shift from fossil fuel-based electricity generation to renewable sources like wind and solar.
The consequences of failing to build more transmission lines are dire. The IEA’s “Grid Delay Case” scenario estimates that nearly 60 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions will be released between 2030 and 2050 if the grid grows slowly. This is equivalent to the emissions from the global power sector over the past four years. In this case, global temperatures in 2050 would likely exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius target set by the Paris Climate Agreement, with a 40% chance of exceeding the 2-degree threshold.
Building transmission lines is a lengthy process, taking between five and 15 years, including planning and permitting. In contrast, renewable energy projects take between one and five years to develop, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure can be deployed in less than two years. Therefore, the IEA emphasizes the need for immediate investments in grid infrastructure to support global decarbonization efforts. The report also highlights the importance of international cooperation to ensure that developing countries have the necessary resources to build and modernize their electricity grids.